Fed Funds Rate Unchanged – No Word on Timing of a Rate Hike

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. The rate remains in a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

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Release Date: June 17, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that economic activity has been expanding moderately after having changed little during the first quarter. The pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources diminished somewhat. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports; energy prices appear to have stabilized. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum […]

Fed Funds Rate Unchanged – Fed Now Implicitly Patient

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. The rate remains in a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

The FOMC continues to be implicitly patient in deciding when to increase the Fed Funds rate and move towards normalization of monetary policy. They are waiting for the labor market and inflation to heat back up before making any rate moves or signaling an imminent rate hike. It seems much less likely the Fed Funds Target Rate would increase this summer (and maybe even this year) as the FOMC is now unanimously timid in their approach to normalization and will be looking for solid cover before making a move.

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Release Date: April 29, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated, and the unemployment rate remained steady. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined; households’ real incomes rose strongly, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices, and consumer sentiment remains high. Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined. Inflation continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Although growth in output and employment slowed during the first quarter, the Committee continues to expect that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity […]

Fed Funds Rate Unchanged – Fed Removes “Patient” Language

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. The rate remains in a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

The FOMC previously indicated it will be “patient” before deciding to increase the Fed Funds rate and moving towards normalization of monetary policy. Today, that language was not in the current statement but they also indicated it was unlikely the Fed Funds Target Rate would increase in April. This summer still seems likely to see a rate hike, but it may not be as high as anticipated prior to today.

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Release Date: March 18, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. A range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow and export growth has weakened. Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to […]

Fed Funds Rate Unchanged – FOMC To Be “Patient”

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. The rate remains in a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

Based upon the press release below, the FOMC will be “patient” before deciding to increase the Fed Funds rate and moving towards normalization of monetary policy. Of course they hedged everything by saying they could act sooner or later than expected, based upon real or prospective data. Our reading of the tea leaves says they will take some minor action this summer, even if it’s just telegraphing its coming move or creating a specific fed funds rate target instead of a range.

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Release Date: January 28, 2015

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Labor market conditions have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately; recent declines in energy prices have boosted household purchasing power. Business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has declined further below the Committee’s longer-run objective, largely reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined substantially in recent months; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its […]

January 28th, 2015|News & Commentary, The Economy|

Fed Funds Rate Unchanged – Timing Of Rate Increase Data Dependent

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at the conclusion of today’s FOMC meeting. The rate remains in a target range of 0.00% to 0.25%.

Based upon the press release below, the timing of the Fed Funds rate increase and movement towards normalization will be data dependent.

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Release Date: December 17, 2014

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in October suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Labor market conditions improved further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources continues to diminish. Household spending is rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have declined somewhat further; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the […]

December 17th, 2014|News & Commentary, The Economy|